b'heard about a looming food crisisbut as the UN wouldCanada was one for the record books. Then of course, measure it (in pounds per capita, the amount of grainlast January, extreme heat throughout southern Brazil and thats available to each and everyone in the world), theresArgentina had their soybean drop about 30 million metric no food crisis. According to Basse, the globe was close totonsa big loss for the world.a global food crisis, but averted it.But, those werent the only areas affected by heat One grain prevented us from going over the edge waves. Europe was reported to be at higher temperatures rice, he says. The price of rice never rallied as much inacross multiple countriesLondon at 39 C, Paris at 40 C the last year as we thought, so a lot of the impoverishedand Amsterdam at 38 C.rural rice kept us out of what we thought to be a crisis. They are not set up for this kind of heat, Basse says. Another trend important for the industry? This is theEurope is now calling this a 500-year drought.second year in a row where grain consumption outpacedWhen heat starts to kick in, it means theres a new grain production. yield category, and unfortunately, that low number also Last year, one of my big concerns was raising grainmeans the sudden need for more acres. crop yieldsmy concern is still here, he says. Its a bigWhen you ask me about marketscorn, soybean worry, because if the world doesnt have additional yield,and wheatwe have some troubles because we are what do we need to do? Bring up more acres.just not competitive in the world market, Basse says. But, bringing up acres in the U.S. and globally provesThat gives us a demand flavour thats somewhat bearish. to be more challenging than that. Because of rising rates, the strong dollar, the world reces-As discussions about the world population ramp upsionthe USDA is already projecting that corn, soybean and with the declaration of Nov. 15, 2022 as the Unitedand consumption annually will not change.Nations Day of Eight Billion, the question remains: is theHow to fix it? Basse says the solution isnt easy: we population still growing and will we have enough acreageneed to fix inflation. to feed the globe? We need more of the supplies that are out there, In 2021, Basse mentioned the U.S. was ramping up tohe says. I need more bread and more oil. I need more peak farmlandin 2022, Basse says the U.S. reached aenergy and plastics and steel to make separate products.point in which there are no new additional arable acres ofAnd though were seeing inflation prices in the gro-landunless you take acreage out of the Conservationcery store, Basse says its important to look at another Reserve Program (CRP). group suffering from inflation and high input costs: the To bring up acres to what the globe needs, Basse saysgrower customers. modeling shows the globe needs 22-25 million more acresThough seed costs havent drastically risen in recent in the next five years. years, other inputs surrounding growers have. The biggest Grain yield is stagnant, and thats a lot of acres, heone? Fertilizer prices. says. Where are they going to come from? We in theEverybodys got their hands in [the growers] pock-U.S. are at peak farmland. Theres a war going on in theets, Basse says. Farmers are really anxious across the Black Sea. China and Australias already maximized itsU.S. Everything costs more. Whether its feed, fertilizer, farmland use. It can really only come from one region inlabour, livestock, pesticides, steel, rent, property taxesthe world Latin America. Again, a lot of pressure on theeverything is costing a little more.Amazon resilience and those who are looking for agricul- In addition, payments to farmers from the government tural production down there. have slowed or come to a halt, which causes more anxi-Why has grain production stagnated, though? Is thereety on the farm level. an issue in current genetics? The biggest cost per acre will be fertilizer, Basse No, Basse believes that the stagnation doesnt comesays. This is another year in which farmers will be from the seed sectorit all comes back to the beast ofspending over US$150 to produce an acre of corninflation, which is causing higher input costs. which is a very lofty cost.Inflation is the biggest risk were seeing to crop yieldsThough farmers are seeing high input costs, Basse says over the next 10 to 20 years, he says.in the year ahead, there shouldnt be any problem selling corn and soybean seeds to the farmer. Heatflation and High Inputs If you look at the opportunity, the farmer should plan One reason inflation is causing such a problem for cropfor more corn and soybeanshes making about an yields? Its tied to the increase in temperatures across theextra US$110 per acre, Basse says. We are forecasting globeor heatflation as Basse dubbed it.this year that farmers will plant about 92 million acres of Last summer, we saw British Columbia reach tem- corn, which is up almost 3 million acres from last year. peratures of 49 Cthats about nine degrees hotter thanThe farmers might still be anxious, but they have a smile their prior records, he says. The drought in Westernon their face. JANUARY 2023GERMINATION.CA 39'