b'Granted, increases in wages arent necessarily a reason toA number of things here indicate substantial problems still raise an alarm. Wages are always rising, Gray says.exist for our supply chains, at least as of March 2022, Gray says. The bigger issue, he notes, is the statistics around employ- But theres a couple of signs I want to point out that are kind of ment data.interesting.Right when the pandemic hit, we had a whole bunch ofTo start , Gray says to look at ocean freight rates. While the people who arent employed anymore relative to the size of therates are still quite highparticularly between the U.S. and population, Gray says. Thats been rising back up, but not asChinatheres a trend that the rates are coming down. But not fast as we thought.only are they coming down in that specific region, but globally. As of June 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor and Bureau ofFreight rates and ocean freight rates starting to come down sug-Labor Statistics report that unemployment rate is sitting at 3.6%gests bottleneck in freight isnt fixed, but its improving.of 5.9 million people in the U.S. To compare, unemployment inOn land, trucking rates are coming down as well. The down-April 2020 was at its largest spike, at 14.7%.side is, fuel surcharges are going up.Is inflation having an impact on wages? Perhaps, but the twoThats the difference between the two, and its an important slopes are relatively the same, Gray says. Theres a good argu- thing to keep in mind, he continues. But, its a clear indication ment for saying wag raises may have more to do with the greatthat overall, trucking rates are coming down. Why? Despite what resignation than inflation. I dont have a solid answer whetherthe news tells us, we have ore drivers in our fleet now than we wages are rising as a result of inflationit seems to be maybedid before.not yet. Fuel surcharges are still high due to a price fuel problem, If increased wages were the result of inflation, Gray saysthough gas prices are gradually decreasing. National gas price he would expect wages to be rising at a faster rate due to theaverages as of Sept. 8 were $3.71 according to AAA. However, supply problem associated with the great resignation. That, bythats a stark difference than gas prices in June, which were aver-definition, is going to cause wages to rise faster, he says.aging around $5.004 nationally for regular gas. As of right now, theres no clear indication of it.And though gas prices are still considered nationally high, As for demand of different products in the supply chain Gray says both the lack of truck driver problem and the gas fuel demand is on the rise and causing price increases. The easiestprice problem are beginning to fix themselves.example to see this in is the grocery store. In addition, when it comes to inventories, supply chains are Good prices are clearly rising, Gray says. In fact, theyre atbeginning to correct themselves as well. their highest level since the 1970s. More importantlyfood infla- Weve rebuilt a substantial amount of our retail inventories tion is a really big deal in the rest of the world, which fuels realresponding to this boom in demand that came out of COVID, concerns about hunger and additional food insecurity. he says. We now may have the highest retail inventories weve In the U.S. alone, food-at-home prices, including grocery storehad in quite some time. This is an indication that while our supply or supermarket food prices, increased 1.3% from April to Maychains have a lot of challenges left in front of them, there are 2022, and was 11.9% high than May 2021. The USDA Economicsigns that theyre loosening and beginning to correct themselves. Research Service reports that in 2022, food-at-home prices areIn agriculture, however, there are still a few challengespredicted to increase between 8.5% to 9.5%.including a low global stock of wheat.This is the problem with inflation, Gray says. In agriculture,Ukraine matters a lot to global stocks, Gray says. Its the we tend to think inflation isnt a terrible thingbut it is a terrible,lowest its been since 2012, even including Ukraines stock of terrible thing. We see what the Russia-Ukraine crisis has donegrain.for us. Wait until that crisis gets wider, because theres too manyThis will be a challenge in the near future for commoditiespeople hungry in the world and they want to rise up. It creates abut in the U.S., that might mean high commodity prices could lot of instability.likely remain, he continues. The problem, however, comes into The Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability atfeeding the globe. Projection-wise, February 2024s corn com-Purdue University recently asked consumers: what are you doingmodity prices are still predicted to be well above $6.50 a bushel.about inflation and how is it affecting your demand for food?Thats two years from now, and thats nowhere close to Thirty-one percent said its not doing much at all to their foodreverting to the meanwhich suggests that our global situation demand, while 24% are seeking out more sales or discounts.for production is going to be tight for a period to come, Gray Increases in food prices dont affect everybody equally,says. noting that this might not be due to supply chain issues, but Gray says. Its something that we need to make sure wereother issues such as weather and conflict that prevent the ability paying close attention toeveryone is supposed to have ato rebuild stock levels. chance to eat affordable, safe and accessible food. As things continue to rapidly change, make sure you stay ahead of the game by paying attention to the economic trends Supply Chains on the Right Trajectory globally.SWAfter learning so much about the inflation in the U.S.its time to answer the question everyones been asking Will supply chains ever correct themselves?Well, the answer is looking positive. SEED ASSOCIATION OF THE AMERICAS 2022SEEDWORLD.COM /13'