b'UN predicts almost 11 billion people by 2100), Bricker says its ingrained in our society to believe humanity is growing out of control.Yes, you read that right: Bricker says even the com-monly cited United Nations numbers overshoot the mark, and greatly overestimate how many people will be on the planet in the coming years. In fact, he says its unlikely the world population will even hit 9 billion at all. Instead, he says, it will top out at around 8.5 billion in 2030 before it begins to decline. And the decline will not stop.Germination:In agriculture its commonly believed that we are headed for a world of 9 billion by 2050, and it will keep grow-ing after that. Even the United Nations tells us this. Why are you so confident in your numbers?Darrell Bricker (DB): Were getting better at measuring what people do, how they go through the process of living their lives. The decisions that have been made that are going to shape the future have already been made by your grandparents, your parents, and now you. The con-sequences of those decisions are apparent. Demographics are like glaciersyou can see them coming from a long way off. What we are going to be seeing and experienc-ing will define the global agricultural marketplace, and all other marketplaces too.Germination:So even the UN is wrong?DB: The UN actually has had three different population projections. The one you always read about is the middle one that predicts a continuing rise in global popula- Darrell Bricker is CEO of public affairs for global market research tion, over 9 billion by 2050 and as many as 10.9 billionfirm Ipsos and co-author of Empty Planet: The Shock of Global by 2100. The numbers I talk about are closer to whatPopulation Decline.the UNs lowest estimate is. We will peak at 8.5 billion people and finish the 21st century with the same numberGermination:That brings us to fertility. Why do people have of people we have today. We will not have a world of 10.9fewer children in cities?billion to feed. We wont even have 9 billion to feed. DB: As urbanization continues, in most parts of the world the birth rate is falling to replacement rate or lower. That Germination:Why is that? means most places in the worldnamely everywhere DB: Three main reasons: urbanization, fertility and aging.except sub-Saharan Africa and Indiawill see their UN stats tell us that in 1960, a third of us lived in a majorpopulations peak and then begin to decline. Just take a city. Today it is 56%. Thats going to continue to rise aslook at your own family. How many kids did your grand-people move from the countryside to the city. We see thisparents have? How many did your parents have? How every day as rural communities across the country die off.many do you have or plan to have? And how many kids Most people are moving to the city, and its happening alldo you think your kids will have? In most places in the over the world. This has massive implications for every- world, youll get a similar answer. On the farm, having thing from how long we will live to the size of families.lots of kids means more hands to milk the cows and Basically, people are living longer and having fewer chil- harvest the crops. In cities, childrenalthough we love dren when they live in the city. In Canada we now havethem dearlyare a liability. Having kids is expensive, as more people over 65 than under the age of 50. virtually every parent in Canada will tell you.42GERMINATION.CASEPTEMBER 2020'