b'RETAIL STRATEGYSEEDS OF SUCCESSUnderstanding the economic forces coming our way in 2024 can help you weather the storm, and new genetics have a key role to play.Marc ZienkiewiczOVER THE PAST three years, the global economic landscape has been marked by unprecedented levels of disruption. When it comes to risk mitigation strategies, its crucial to understand the scale of these disruptions. What was once a relatively stable environment suddenly shifted dramatically around August 2020, extending through 2023, says Sam Taylor, farm inputs analyst for Rabobank based in New York. Fertilizer prices surged threefold, commodity prices dou-bled, and glyphosate prices tripled. This upheaval wasnt caused by a single factor; rather, it stemmed from a multitude of events, including the Texas power crisis, COVID-related disruptions, fluctuating natural gas and coal prices, and environmental concerns. These factors, compounded by sanctions and conflicts, cre-ated a volatile market driven by what seems like a continuous stream of unforeseen events, Taylor goes on to say.Analyzing the month-over-month price changes in ureaGreg Stamp, seed sales manager,Sam Taylor, Farm Inputs Analyst, further highlights the extent of this volatility. Previously infre- Stamp Seeds Rabobankquent, instances where price falls exceeded gross profit margins became far more common during this period. This volatilitydomestic affordability concerns has contributed to the current affects not only retailers but also the entire value chain, posingunaffordability in the phosphate market.challenges for independent growers like Greg Stamp, whoLooking ahead, the geopolitical landscape will continue to grows and sells seed near Enchant, Alta. influence fertilizer prices, with factors like Chinas export poli-Market swings dictate our planting decisions, but anticipat- cies and Moroccos market strategies shaping global supply and ing these fluctuations is like reading tea leaves. One year, a par- demand dynamics, Taylor says. While some relief may be on ticular variety may sit in our bins for an extended period, whilethe horizon in the second half of the year, the immediate future the next, it becomes the top choice of farmers, Stamp says. remains uncertain.In navigating these uncertain times, access to timely andDespite challenges, the Canadian market has fared relatively accurate information becomes paramount. Factors such aswell in terms of fertilizer imports. However, broader global energy pricing, political developments, and farm income trendsdynamics necessitate a comprehensive understanding of the play crucial roles in shaping market dynamics.interconnectedness of markets and the importance of staying Understanding these factors is essential for devising effec- informed to navigate these turbulent times effectively.tive risk mitigation strategies. This is relevant for seed growers and retailers in that not only do they use many of the inputsThe Cost Factoraffected by economic forces, but their farmer customers do, too. Furthermore, retailers need to adopt a judicious approach to Examining the affordability index of fertilizers reveals apricing and resource management, according to Stamp.cyclicality to the volatility, with periods of peak and troughEvery aspect, from staff wages to freight charges, must be occurring roughly every 18 months, Taylor says. However,factored into the equation, he says.recent events have deviated from this norm, driven largelyMoreover, Stamp highlights the pervasive impact of regula-by global political dynamics and farm income trends. Fortory measures, such as carbon taxes, on the cost structure of instance, Chinas decision to limit fertilizer exports due toseed retailing operations. 34 SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADAMARCH 2024'