b'The ripple effects of policies like carbon taxation permeate every facet of the supply chain, necessitating strategic adjust- STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS AMIDST ments to maintain profitability. Harnessing economies of scaleECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN 2024becomes imperative in mitigating the impact of escalating costs, Stamp says. Gather Information: Invest in systems and processes to gather At present, the affordability of phosphates in the U.S.and analyze information about global market dynamics, including market is exceedingly high. This means theres little roomcommodity prices, fertilizer prices, geopolitical events, and for significant arbitrage opportunities between the U.S. andregulatory changes. This can help in making informed decisions and Canadian markets; theyre closely aligned, according to Taylor. Until we witness a shift in global market conditions,developing proactive strategies to mitigate risks.particularly regarding phosphates, its unlikely well see muchDiversify Supply Sources: Explore opportunities to diversify the relief in the Canadian market either. This scenario bears somesources of seed and other inputs to reduce reliance on specific resemblance to the factors driving the recent spike in nitrogenregions or suppliers that may be impacted by geopolitical or prices. Additionally, weather-related issues have tightened bothenvironmental factors. This could involve building partnerships with the nitrogen and urea markets in North America. suppliers from different geographic regions or investing in alternative As natural gas and coal prices decline, albeit slowly, theressupply chains.hope for some alleviation in input costs. However, the current tightness in global markets, especially in North America, per- Mitigate Risk: Develop scenario plans to anticipate various potential sists due to the need to meet localized demand amid adjustingdisruptions and their impacts on the supply chain. This includes cost bases. considering scenarios such as trade disputes, extreme weather The Role of Trade events, regulatory changes, and shifts in consumer demand. Unpredictable trade is undeniably a daunting prospect, fraughtImplement risk management strategies to mitigate the potential with uncertainties that can swiftly disrupt our best-laid plans.negative impacts of these scenarios.The sudden shifts in market dynamics might make someEngage in Policy Advocacy: Engage with policymakers at local, nervous as we grapple with the repercussions of rapid change,national, and international levels to advocate for policies that support according to Stamp.a stable and predictable business environment for seed retailers. Take, for instance, the recent surge in demand for yellowThis may involve participating in industry associations, lobbying peasan unexpected boon that momentarily revitalized theefforts, and providing input into policy discussions related to market and ignited enthusiasm among growers and buyersagriculture and trade.alike. But such fluctuations are often temporary, leaving us dealing with uncertainty, Stamp says. Invest in Resilience: Allocate resources towards building resilience The spectre of non-tariff trade barriers always looms largein the supply chain, infrastructure, and operations. This could include for us. Phytosanitary concerns and maximum residue limitsinvestments in technology, infrastructure upgrades, supply chain [MRLs] emerge as formidable obstacles, potentially wielded asoptimization, and training programs for staff to enhance adaptability tools of protectionism rather than genuine regulatory concerns.and responsiveness to changing market conditions.These invisible barriers pose a formidable challenge, complicat- Educate and Support Your Customers: Provide support and ing our efforts to navigate the intricacies of global trade.The conundrum becomes even more pronounced when con- education to customers, such as farmers, about the factors sidering specialized crops tailored to niche markets. A suddeninfluencing input prices and market dynamics. This can help them influx of Russian peas into China, for instance, can swiftly altermake informed decisions about crop planning, input purchasing, and market dynamics, prompting a re-evaluation of retailers strate- risk management strategies.gies and priorities.Plan for the Long Term: Develop long-term strategic plans that The uncertainty surrounding market access and pricingconsider the potential impact of ongoing trends and disruptions adds another layer of complexity, leaving us to think aboutin the global landscape. This includes evaluating opportunities for volume and market positioning, Stamp adds. innovation, diversification, and sustainable growth while remaining Amidst these uncertainties, the ability to adapt and pivot becomes paramount. While the road ahead may include obsta- adaptable to changing market conditions.cles, it is through resilience and strategic foresight that retailers can navigate the tumultuous waters of international trade. MARCH 2024 SEEDWORLD.COM/CANADA 35'