b'SINCE YOU ASKEDBY: NIELS LOUWAARSWHO IS AFRAID OF A GLOBAL TRADE WAR?T he seed sector is highly regulated in most countries with variety reg-istration, seed quality controls and phytosanitary rules. It has been increasingly affected by policies that are not directly focused on it. The need for the restaura-tion of nature and the conservation of bio-diversity produced the CBD and Nagoya Protocol that affects the sector greatly, even after the important repairs of the International Treaty. Environmental poli-cies affect seed treatment, the most effective use of pesticides. And now the whole world seems to be forgetting the benefits of free trade, starting a trade war by introducing tariffs far beyond what has been experi-enced during the existence of WTO or even GATT. Will that significantly affect the whole seed sector?The seed sector is a globally inte-grated sector. Varieties have to be opti- the total production costs of most crop andaspect of current policy directions is the mally adapted to the specific geography inare not likely to increase consumer priceseffect of tariffs and other trade restrictions which they are grown and local consumermuch. So, for most crops even 25% importon agricultural commodities. If interna-preferences. But they often arise from broadduty is not likely to excessively change thetional trade of food products is restricted, public or private breeding programmes.demand for high-quality seed of the bestthen that will affect the demand for seed. Full-fledged breeding programmes need avarieties. This may however be less so forIf winter-imports of vegetables would be sufficiently large market to thrive. Next iscrops with a low multiplication factor suchheavily taxed by the USA and Europe, then that seed production has to take place inas some legumes and root/tuber crops,the seed demand in countries like Mexico areas where the biophysical and economicand indeed for the gap-filling mentionedand Morocco will likely go down much conditions are optimal. Seed productionabove. The signalling of the departure frommore than a tariff on the seed itself. Also, is not necessarily best in the region wherethe policy of free trade may strengthen thethe pressure on development cooperation the crop is popular to be grown, becausereality that food is a strategic commodity,budgets will severely affect food aid. This diseases will be common there, and, nota- and that in turn, seeds are an essential ele- puts food security in several regions at risk, bly for wind or insect pollinators, isolationment of a countryscapability to produce it.but it also greatly affects farming in coun-distances cannot be guaranteed. Moreover,So, more and more countries would like totries that produce the food for the World an economy of scale requires seed produc- become less dependent on others and mayFood Programme and others. Farmers in tion of most vegetable and flower seeds tothink that they can produce the seeds thatsuch supplying countries may have to shift be concentrated in a limited number ofthey need themselvesand even do breed- gears to other cropsand thus change their locations in the world. And filling gaps ining of all crops within their borders. Tariffsseed use. e.g. forage seed supply is needed when athus may even instil other measures thatThe seed sector has benefitted for a production area is hit by bad weather. Nomake seeds crossing borders increasinglylong time from the free trade policies that country is independent from foreign geneticdifficult, including further phytosanitaryhave dominated the world for a long time. resources, nor from breeding programmesblockages and increased variety registra- Seed companies are known to be very stra-and seed production facilities in other coun- tion rules. Import restrictions have beentegic. Those companies that have not done tries. Seeds thus have to cross borders andincreasing over the past few years, notablythat yet urgently need to strategize how minimal hindrances of seed movement areusing phytosanitary requirements based onthey will deal with the quickly changing essential for effective crop production andpolitical economy rather than science. Forworld order. But fear is commonly a bad food security. New tariffs dont fit in thatmost countries it proves unrealistic to beadvisor, including during a global trade picture!autonomous on seeds of all crops, but policywar. But will tariffs be a major hindrance?makers seem to be less and less concerned Of course they increase seed prices, butabout such realities. Niels Louwaars is a Seed World Europe col-the cost of seed is only a tiny percentage ofAn indirect, but not less importantumnist and Seed Systems Specialist.44ISEED WORLD EUROPEISEEDWORLD.COM/EUROPE | MAY 2025'