b'value level, if applied to potential plant breeding progress in upcoming decades. Hence, successfully innovated genetic crop improvements in the EU have been and will be essential for eco-nomic, social, and environmental benefits at large scale in the future. They are a highly effective measure for adapting to new challenges and very dynamic settings.EXPECTATION: A DECREASE IN EUAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONFulfilling the various objectives of the EU Farm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies marks a considerable new challenge for farmers in the EU, as agricultural production is expected to considerably decrease by 2030 if the two strategies are fully implemented. Plant breeders are certainly able to help compen-sate negative effects that may arise from a production decline triggered by the strategies. However, our research suggests that plant breeding-induced innovations at the current pace may not suffice to fully counteract the potential impact arising from an implementation of the two strategies by 2030. At the current pace of plant breeding, production and subsequent market supply losses due to the implementation of the two strategies by 2030 could potentially only be halved by plant breeding in the next decade. MIND THE GAP!What could possibly fill the subsequent gaps in the future, as plant protection and fertilization must be reduced with the two strategies and land machinery and other technologies have Steffen Noleppa long-lasting investment intervals? Again, plant breeding is considered a potential game changer in this context. For plant breeding to be effective in this context, the processes aiming at have been created and secured in the arable sector this way.genetic crop improvements must be sped up. All available tech-Additionally, many more jobs have been created upstream andnologies must be used for this, especially those able to provide downstream the agricultural value chain in the EU. genetic crop improvements in a more targeted way and shorter 8.Plant breeding in the EU does not only bring abouttime. In addition, the overall policy and regulatory framework positive economic and social effects. It also generates substan- must encourage and not hinder the necessary investments in tial positive environmental impacts. It especially contributes tofuture plant breeding.the conservation of global scarce land resources by generating higher yields per unit of area. The absence of plant breeding forACTING RESPONSIBLYmajor arable crops in the EU over the past 20 years would haveThe time savings attributed to accelerated trait integration and led to the expansion of global agricultural acreage by more thanearly generation selection of new plant breeding techniques 21.5 million hectares by 2020. alone will be substantial and certainly lead to a considerable 9.This contributes to the preservation of natural habitatsadditional plant breeding-induced yield growth. This will cer-and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions resulting fromtainly help to achieve the ambitious goals of, for instance, the an expansion of the global acreage. In the two decades prior toFarm to Fork and Biodiversity strategies at European scale and 2020, a total of almost 4.0 billion tons of direct CO2 emissionsthe Sustainable Development Goals at global scale. Provided were avoided due to genetic improvements in EU major arablethat the EU sees itself as a responsible actor that accepts the crops. In addition, plant breeding in the EU generates a largeglobal and regional challenges involved herein and wants to play positive biodiversity effect. Without the successes in EU plantits part in meeting these challenges, it follows that economic, breeding over the last 20 years, a global biodiversity equivalentsocial, and environmental considerations must be recognised in to the species richness found in 8.3 million hectares of rainforesta balanced way when making policy decisions about the use of and savannahs in Brazil or in 11.8 million hectares of naturalsuch new technologies. habitats in Indonesia would have been lost by 2020, in addition to what has already disappeared. AVOIDING TRADE-OFFS10.Finally, plant breeding in the EU for major arable cropsPlant breeders efforts have helped and continuously help to over the past two decades has contributed to the global conserva- create synergies and avoid trade-offs embedded in multiple tion of scarce water resources. Without plant breeding, an addi- objective settings since plant breeding is a highly effective tional almost 50 million m3 of water would be necessary todaymeasure for adapting to new challenges and mitigating neg-globally. This is equivalent to the water volume of Lago di Garda. ative consequences that may arise when addressing manifold In summary, plant breeding for arable crops in the EU overchallenges. But is plant breeding able to go beyond its previous the past 20 years has surely created many opportunities for thecontributions? agrarian economy, the rural environment, and society. In theIt certainly should, since increased crop productivity future, this perspective is expected to change only a bit. Mostthrough the development of superior plant varieties may play of the indicators that have been analysed with respect to planta substantial role in the future and the adaptation of other breeding for major arable crops in the EU since the turn of theimproved land and crop management practices may be limited. millennium show a rather stable and similar, or an even higherThis makes plant breeding an extremely important area of 20IEUROPEAN SEEDIEUROPEAN-SEED.COM'