b'Inflation is the biggest risk were seeing to crop yields over the next 10 to 20 years.Dan Basseand everyone in the world), theres no food crisis. According tothroughout southern Brazil and Argentina had their soybean Basse, the globe was close to a global food crisis, but averted it.drop about 30 million metric tonsa big loss for the world.One grain prevented us from going over the edgerice, heBut, those werent the only areas affected by heat waves. says. The price of rice never rallied as much in the last year asEurope was reported to be at higher temperatures across multi-we thought, so a lot of the impoverished rural rice kept us out ofple countriesLondon at 103 F, Paris at 105 F and Amsterdam what we thought to be a crisis. at 101 F.Another trend important for the industry? This is the secondThey are not set up for this kind of heat, Basse says. Europe year in a row where grain consumption outpaced grain production. is now calling this a 500-year drought.Last year, one of my big concerns was raising grain cropWhen heat starts to kick in, it means theres a new yield yieldsmy concern is still here, he says. Its a big worry,category, and unfortunately, that low number also means the because if the world doesnt have additional yield, what do wesudden need for more acres. need to do? Bring up more acres.When you ask me about marketscorn, soybean and wheat But, bringing up acres in the U.S. and globally proves to be we have some troubles because we are just not competitive more challenging than that. in the world market, Basse says. That gives us a demand flavor As discussions about the world population ramp up and withthats somewhat bearish. Because of rising rates, the strong the declaration of Nov. 15, 2022, as the United Nations Day ofdollar, the world recessionthe USDA is already projecting that Eight Billion, the question remains on the mind: is the populationcorn, soybean and consumption annually will not change.still growing and will we have enough acreage to feed the globe? How to fix it? Basse says the solution isnt easy: we need to fix In 2021, Basse mentioned the U.S. was ramping up to peak farm- inflation. landthis year, Basse says the U.S. has reached a point in whichWe need more of the supplies that are out there, he says. I there are no new additional arable acres of land in the U.S.unlessneed more bread and more oil. I need more energy and plastics you take acreage out of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). and steel to make separate products.To bring up acres to what the globe needs, Basse says mod- And though were seeing inflation prices in the grocery store, eling shows the globe needs 22-25 million more acres in the nextBasse says its important to look at another group suffering from five years. inflation and high input costs: the grower customers. Grain yield is stagnant, and thats a lot of acres, he says.Though seed costs havent drastically risen in recent years, Where are they going to come from? We in the U.S. are at peakother inputs surrounding growers have. The biggest one? farmland. Theres a war going on in the Black Sea. China andFertilizer prices. Australias already maximized its farmland use. It can really onlyEverybodys got their hands in [the growers] pock-come from one region in the world Latin America. Again, a lotets, Basse says. Farmers are really anxious across the U.S. of pressure on the Amazon resilience and those who are lookingEverything costs more. Whether its feed, fertilizer, labor, live-for agricultural production down there. stock, pesticides, steel, rent, property taxeseverything is cost-Why has grain production stagnated, though? Is there aning a little more.issue in current genetics? In addition, payments to farmers from the government have No, Basse believes that the stagnation doesnt come from theslowed or come to a halt, which causes more anxiety on the farm seed sectorit all comes back to the beast of inflation, which islevel. causing higher input costs. The biggest cost per acre will be fertilizer, Basse says. This Inflation is the biggest risk were seeing to crop yields overis another year in which farmers will be spending over $150 to the next 10 to 20 years, he says.produce an acre of cornwhich is a very lofty cost.Though farmers are seeing high input costs, though, Basse Heatflation and High Inputs says in the year ahead, there shouldnt be any problem selling One reason inflation is causing such a problem for crop yields?corn and soybean seeds to the farmer. Its tied to the increase in temperatures across the globeorIf you look at the opportunity, the farmer should plan for heatflation as Basse dubbed it.more corn and soybeanshes making about an extra $110 per Last summer, we saw British Columbia reach temperaturesacre, Basse says. We are forecasting this year that farmers will of 121 degreesthats about nine degrees hotter than their priorplant about 92 million acres of corn, which is up almost 3 million records, he says. The drought in Western Canada was one foracres from last year. The farmers might still be anxious, but they the record books. Then of course, last January, extreme heathave a smile on their face.SW42/ SEEDWORLD.COMJANUARY 2023'