b'he likes to call it, something we all know that isnt actually true. Whether its documentaries focused on the problem of over-population, politicians giving stump speeches about it, or even the United Nations predicting a dramatic rise in the number of people on Earth (the UN predicts almost 11 billion people by 2100), Bricker says its ingrained in our society to believe human-ity is growing out of control.Yes, you read that right: Bricker says even the commonly cited United Nations numbers overshoot the mark, and greatly overestimated how many people will be on the planet in the coming years. In fact, he says its unlikely the world popula-tion will even hit 9 billion at all. Instead, he says, it will top out at around 8.5 billion in 2030 before it begins to decline. And the decline will not stop.Bricker sat down with Seed Worlds Canadian sister publica-tion Germination to share how his predictions came to be, based on current and future trends.Seed World: In agriculture its commonly believed that we are headed for a world of 9 billion by 2050, and it will keep growing after that. Even the United Nations tells us this. Why are you so confident in your numbers?Darrell Bricker (DB): Were getting better at measuring what people do, how they go through the process of living their lives. The decisions that have been made that are going to shape the future have already been made by your grandparents, your parents, and now you. The consequences of those decisions are apparent. Demographics are like glaciersyou can see them coming from a long way off. What we are going to be seeingDarrell Bricker is CEO public affairs for Ipsos.and experiencing will define the global agricultural marketplace, and all other marketplaces too.Seed World: So even the UN is wrong?DB: The UN actually has three different population projections.The UN actually has three different population The one you always read about is the middle one that predictsprojections. The one you always read about is the a continuing rise in global population, over 9 billion by 2050 and as many as 10.9 billion by 2100. The numbers I talk about aremiddle one that predicts a continuing rise in global closer to what the UNs lowest estimate is. We will peak at 8.5population, over 9 billion by 2050 and as many asbillion people and finish the 21st century with the same number of people we have today. We will not have a world of 10.9 billion10.9 billion by 2100. The numbers I talk about areto feed. We wont even have 9 billion to feed. closer to what the UNs lowest estimate is. We Seed World: Why is that? will peak at 8.5 billion people and finish the 21st DB: Three main reasons: urbanization, fertility and aging. UN stats tell us that in 1960, a third of us lived in a major city. Todaycentury with the same number of people we have it is 56%. Thats going to continue to rise as people move fromtoday. We will not have a world of 10.9 billion to the countryside to the city. We see this every day as rural com-munities across the country die off. Most people are moving tofeed. We wont even have 9 billion to feed. the city, and its happening all over the world. This has massive Darrell Brickerimplications from everything from how long we will live to the size of families. Basically, people are living longer and having 66/ SEEDWORLD.COMJANUARY 2023'