b'Economic Outlook Bleak All around us, there is the war.As the situation continues, crop economic outlooks are predict- Some days it is difficult to work ing concerns with the loss of potential exports from both Russia and Ukraine. and make any decisions after the According to the USDAs most recent World Agriculturalreports we hear.Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, concerns are growing due to the uncertainty of agricultural supply and Siuzana Grygorenkodemand conditions in Ukrainewith the expectation of lower exports in wheat, corn and soybean. Especially concerning is the impact on the global wheat outlook. World consumption of wheat is expected to raise 3.8 million tons to 791.1 millionunfortunately, global trade for 2022 is predicted to be lower due to issues in the Ukraine. GlobalPrimarily, though, Leddin says its possible to see crops like wheat trade is expected to be 3 million tons lowerthe reportmillet or sorghum come into play more as a staple cereal in diet, notes exports from the EU, Ukraine, the U.S. and Kazakhstan arebut this would be more used to make something along the lines not completely offset by higher exports from Russia, Brazil andof a porridge instead of a bread. Argentina. Meaning, there might be a shortage of wheat. Whats more likely, he believes, is countries might not export Ukraines wheat exports were lowered 1 million tons to 19as much as they would in a normal year to maintain and feed million, due to the closures of its Black Sea ports caused by thetheir own citizens.invasion in February. Global wheat stocks are projected at a five- We saw in 2008, with the global financial crisis and food year low. spike prices in India, that people in India were paying a larger The U.S. cant make up the differences in exports.percentage of their income towards accessing food than The U.S. wheat exports forecast is lowered 15 millionnormal, he says. There was a lot of politics going on there. bushels, the USDAs Office of the Chief Economist in a tweet.Indias main stance was they werent going to export their grains Exports would be the lowest since 2015-16, and the secondoutside of India and would consume them locally first. That can lowest in 50 years. have a big price effect on other grains.Corn is also expected to be lower in terms of exports fromIn this instance, Leddin believes if wheat prices were to go up, Ukraine, Serbia and Paraguay, but U.S. soybean exports areother cereal and crop prices might follow due to political deci-expected to offset lower numbers from Ukraine, Brazil andsions made by diffeerent developing countries to feed their own Russia. Unfortunately, global soybean production is expected topopulations first. take a hitreduced by 3.1 million tons.All in all, food price increases seem imminent. When it comes down to it, the biggest concern stemmingIts not just Russia and Ukrainewere seeing fresh vegeta-from lack of supply from Ukraine is the price of food increasing. ble prices go up due to the lack of transport availability, caus-ing an increase in the Western world, he says. Consumers are Food Prices Will Increase going to get that increase in price passed onto them.For countries that rely on Ukraine and Russias wheat exports, the lack of supply could result in increased prices of grains The Fight Isnt Over Yetwhich, for developing nations, might not be a problem. ForWhen it comes down to it, Grygorenko wants everyone to know developed countries, its a different story. that as the situation continues, the real heroes she sees right Wheat doesnt grow well in tropical regions, but luckily, mostnow are the growers in Ukraine.developing nations dont rely on grains as part of their diet, saysOur farmers and volunteers are heroic people, she says. Anthony Leddin, a plant breeder with Valley Seeds. The effectSome farmers, especially in southern regions, continue working wont be near as difficult in developing nations in comparison toand helping civilians with food, fuel, bread and even seeds. War those who have wheat as a main staple in their diet. shows us and the world that nothing is impossible.The main concern due to issues in the grain trade fromBut above all, Grygorenko wants people to know about their Ukraine and Russia, however, would be the effects on the breadcurrent reality.market globally.This is a horrible war, she says. Russians destroy our infra-Wheat is pretty unique in that it has gluten to producestructure and our agricultural spherethey only want destruc-bread, Leddin says. Thats what you would have to buy in thetion. They cannot fight with soldiers, so instead they fight with supermarket, and theres nothing else that can really substitutechildren, women and the elderly. But we believe in the armed for itother cereals dont rise like wheat bread. forces of Ukraine. Slava Ukraini!SW24/ SEEDWORLD.COMJUNE 2022'