At the CrossRoads Crop Conference, the Globe and Mail columnist argued that slow growth, limited competition, and trade vulnerability threaten Canada’s economic resilience.

Canada is entering an era where trade, security, and economic growth can no longer be treated as separate files, and the country is not ready for it.

That was the message from Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne, speaking at the CrossRoads Crop Conference in Edmonton, Alta., today, where he warned that slowing economic growth, aging demographics, and weak competitive pressure have left Canada increasingly vulnerable in a less predictable global economy.

Coyne described the moment as the convergence of two long-running trends: Canada’s declining growth performance and a world in which trade relationships and security guarantees are no longer as stable as Canadians have assumed. In that environment, he argued, Canada’s proximity to the world’s largest economy — long seen as a strategic advantage — can quickly become a liability.

A foundational assumption under strain

At the centre of Coyne’s argument was a belief that has shaped decades of Canadian policy: that the United States would remain a dependable democratic ally and security partner.

Canada’s geography, resource base, and relatively small population fostered the idea that the country could underinvest in defence and resilience, effectively “free riding” on continental security. The emerging risk, Coyne said, is not invasion, but coercion — a world where economic interdependence itself becomes leverage.

Trade, he warned, is increasingly being used as a tool of pressure rather than a neutral engine of prosperity, posing particular risks for countries heavily reliant on exports to a single market.

“Options, allies, capacity”

Coyne framed Canada’s response around three priorities.

Options
Canada needs credible alternatives to over-reliance on any one trading partner. He pointed to the global shift toward “de-risking” supply chains through diversified trade relationships. While cautioning against replacing dependence on the U.S. with dependence on China, he said selective engagement still signals that Canada has choices.

For agriculture, that theme resonated clearly. Recent trade disruptions have demonstrated how quickly access can tighten — and how difficult it can be to restore.

Allies
Coyne argued that traditional security arrangements are under strain and may need reinforcement through broader cooperation among democracies. One idea he raised was an “economic Article Five,” where economic attacks such as punitive tariffs on one country would be treated as attacks on all.

Capacity
Canada must strengthen its ability to absorb shocks — military, economic, and societal. That includes preparedness for disruptions across finance, infrastructure, logistics, and supply chains.

He repeatedly tied capacity back to a familiar but increasingly urgent concern: productivity.

Productivity, competition, and growth

Coyne’s assessment of Canada’s economic trajectory was blunt. Long-term growth has slowed steadily, and recent gains have struggled to keep pace with population growth, eroding living standards. An aging population compounds the problem, increasing health-care costs while shrinking the number of workers supporting public services.

His policy prescriptions were direct:

• Tax reform to improve competitiveness and encourage investment, including broadening the tax base and lowering marginal rates
• Greater openness to foreign investment, paired with clear national-security guardrails
• More competition in sectors shielded from meaningful market pressure, which he described as a consistent driver of productivity gains
• Aggressive action on interprovincial trade barriers, including federal intervention where barriers are clearly discriminatory

Coyne told the audience Canada cannot sustain “world-leading” cost structures in essential services, because those costs ultimately flow through to every exporting sector.

Why this matters for agriculture

Coyne’s remarks were not framed around agriculture, but their implications are clear.

Export concentration carries risk in a world where trade can be weaponized. Internal barriers raise costs and slow innovation. Productivity is no longer an abstract policy debate — it underpins Canada’s ability to fund public services, invest in infrastructure, and remain competitive globally.

For agriculture — from crop production to inputs and value-added processing — those pressures shape market access, investment decisions, workforce availability, and long-term growth.