b'From an economic perspective, we would sayments at an alarming rate. Over 10,000 new homesWheat production is that theres a misalignmentwe have too manyare expected within a 10-mile radius of my housepredicted to reach of some inputs and not enough demand, and too most within a 5-mile radius, all on cropland or1.78 much of other inputs, says Michelle Klieger, ownerformer dairies. It is frustrating and alarming. Where of Stratagerm Consulting. will the food come from if we grow houses insteadbillion bushels, Despite a rocky path over the past year andof food? said an Arizona farmer who participatedincreasingan uncertain future, businesses and consumersin the survey. 8%are becoming accustomed to these supply chainWith major drought and scarce water, wildfiresfrom 2021. disruptions. are another natural occurrence that farmers must We are all starting to change our behavior andkeep on their radar.build in that slack and keep some inventory, addsRising temperatures and drought have made itMore thanKlieger. All of that is the result of resiliency. It canapparent that climate change is only increasing the60%be expensive, but it will smooth out some of thefrequency and intensity of these wildfires. Winterof the Americanbumps in 2023. snows are melting earlier, with rain falling later inWest, Southwest and the fall. In recent years, fires have burned outsideCentral Plains have Farmer Sentiment of the normal fire season in California, Arizona,been categorized as Farmer sentiment rose 14 points from July toNew Mexico, Tennessee and New Jersey, accord- D3 (severe) droughtAugust, reaching a reading of 117, according to theing to the USDA. or higherPurdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. TheExperts predict these fires will only continue to increase in the Index of Current Conditions and theworsen, making the need for reseeding and native Index of Future Expectations brought upon thisseed companies that much stronger. Out of the 652 improvement. Fire seasons are getting longer. Theyre gettingresponses fromFarmers were less worried about financial situa- more destructive. Theyre getting more intense.15 states,tions on the farm than in July, yet they remain trou- Extended fire seasons dry out vegetation out at74% bled by the potential cost/price squeeze. More thantimes of the year that are not ideal, setting theof respondents rated half of respondents selected higher input costs asstage for large, massive wildfires. Add in increaseda decrease in harvest their biggest concerns for the upcoming year. Otherfuels from annual weeds, like cheatgrass, and thatsyields because of top concerns included increasing interest rates, thea huge problem, says Damon Winter, generaldrought as prevalent availability of inputs and lower output prices. manager of L&H Seeds, in an interview with Seedor higher, whichWhile Augusts improved sentiment is a moveWorld. Quality native plant materials in the formwas only ain the right direction, all three indices still fall wellof seeds are an absolute necessity to disrupt weed2%below levels from 2021. establishment and return these wildfire cyclesincrease from last toward a more normal frequency. years survey. Drought and Water ConservationDrought conditions have added another layerUpcoming Census of Agricultureof stress to farms, ranches and local economies.Various factors have impacted farmers throughoutAcross the regions More than 60% of the American West, Southwestthis year, making the upcoming 2022 Census ofsurveyed, respondents and Central Plains have been categorized asAgriculture crucial. The invitation to respond onlinepredicted the average D3 (severe) drought or higher, according to thewent live in November, with paper questionnairescrop yield will fall American Farm Bureau Federations third roundsent out in December. 38% of surveys to evaluate the continued impact ofCensus of Agriculture data are widely useddue to drought droughts. by federal and local governments, agribusinesses,conditions. The biggest Out of the 652 responses from 15 states, 74%trade associations, extension educators and manydrop is expected in of respondents rated a decrease in harvest yieldsothers to inform decisions about policy and farmTexas where yields are because of drought as prevalent or higher, whichprograms and services that aid producers andreported 68% down.was only a 2% increase from last years survey. Therural communities, said Hubert Hamer, National number of respondents who measured their inten- Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) administra-tion to alternate planned crops for this growingtor, in a release. By responding to the Census of season because of drought increased 37% to 42%. Agricultureby being represented in these impor-Across the regions surveyed, respondents pre- tant dataproducers are literally helping to shape dicted the average crop yield will fall 38% due totheir futures.drought conditions. The biggest drop is expectedThe Census of Agriculture highlights land use in Texas where yields are reported 68% down. and ownership, producer characteristics, produc-Many of the fields near us are now fallow.tion practices, income and expenditures and more Cropland is being converted to housing develop- and is conducted every five years.SW20/ SEEDWORLD.COMDECEMBER 2022'