20  / SEEDWORLD.COM  INTERNATIONAL EDITION 2026
THE CURRENT CRISIS did not 
start with war. It revealed a system 
already under strain, where tight supply, 
delayed purchasing and underinvestment 
were building risk long before disruption 
hit. Keytrade AG CEO Melih Keyman sees 
the moment as a culmination of long-
term pressure.
“The nitrogen markets were already 
tight before hostility started,” Keyman 
says. “This last-minute buying habit of our 
growers globally and the retailers as well 
has complicated the situation. Nothing 
in the summer, nothing in Q4, and then a 
rush right before application season. Now 
we are seeing the results of this behavior.”
That behavior collided with disruption 
at peak demand. Even if shipping lanes 
reopen, recovery will lag.
“It takes 60 to 90 days of no hostilities 
and free passage just to normalize the 
flow of goods,” Keyman says.
Production losses will extend the 
problem.
“How soon can you fix an ammonia or 
urea plant that has been hit by bombs?” 
Keyman asks. “These are big pieces that 
you cannot buy off the shelf.”
Beyond nitrogen, risk is intensifying 
elsewhere.
“The war is causing bigger havoc on 
the phosphate side,” he says. “Sulfur is the 
biggest problem, causing production out­
ages globally.”
Margins Are Cracking — And 
Farmers Are Feeling It First
On farm, the impact is showing up in 
margins. Pivot Bio CEO Chris Abbott says 
the imbalance is historic.
“In a six-year period, you’ve had three 
shocks to the supply chain — COVID, 
Russia/Ukraine and now Iran,” Abbott 
says. “The ratio of nitrogen price to grain 
price is as bad as it’s ever been. I mean 
literally, in history, it is as bad as it’s ever 
been.”
Even if conflict subsides, relief will not 
be immediate.
“If this war ended tomorrow, you are 
not going to have urea go from $850 a 
ton back to $350 overnight,” Abbott says. 
“That’s just not going to happen.”
Instead, the system risks repeating 
itself.
“What happens is the supply-demand 
balance in the spring becomes out of 
whack again,” he says. “It becomes a 
cycle.”
That cycle is forcing broader changes. 
Farmers are reassessing decisions across 
inputs, rotations and risk.
“I think everything is on the table,” says 
Pivot Bio CCO Chris Turner. “Farmers are 
looking at absolutely every decision they 
make.”
Keyman points to a longer-term shift.
“We are going to have to turn into 
providers of solutions instead of sellers of 
fertilizers, seeds or chemicals,” he says. SW
The Fertilizer Crisis Is Here to Stay
A fragile fertilizer system collided with geopolitical shock, exposing cracks in 
supply, pricing and farm economics that will not quickly resolve. 
By Aimee Nielson, Seed World U.S. Editor
Watch the full video and read the full story on Seed World U.S. 360
Melih 
Keyman, 
Keytrade AG 
CEO
Chris 
Abbott, 
Pivot Bio 
CEO
Chris 
Turner, 
Pivot Bio 
CCO

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