A new study published in Environmental Research Letters warns that even advanced climate intervention strategies may fall short of protecting the future of wine grapes, coffee, and cacao. These crops are essential to many national economies and sustain millions of farmers worldwide, yet they are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns are causing wide fluctuations in annual yields, making harvests less predictable and placing livelihoods at risk.
The researchers focused on Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) — a proposed solar geoengineering technique that would release reflective particles into the stratosphere to cool the Earth’s surface, similar to the natural cooling effects of large volcanic eruptions. Their goal was to assess whether SAI could stabilize growing conditions for key crop-producing regions in western Europe, South America, and West Africa between 2036 and 2045.
Using climate simulations across 18 major cultivation zones, the team evaluated crop suitability based on temperature, rainfall, humidity, and disease risk. Although SAI successfully reduced surface temperatures, it failed to consistently preserve the optimal conditions required for the successful growth of wine grapes, coffee, and cacao. Only six of the 18 regions studied showed reliable improvement compared with scenarios without SAI intervention, according to a press release.
The findings indicate that unpredictable rainfall and humidity are key factors limiting SAI’s effectiveness. While the technique could help lower global temperatures, it does not reliably manage precipitation patterns or moisture levels—factors that remain crucial for maintaining stable yields and securing farmers’ incomes.
“Reducing temperature with SAI alone isn’t enough,” said co-author Dr. Ariel Morrison. “For instance, cacao species, while more tolerant of hot temperatures than coffee and grapes, are highly susceptible to pests and diseases caused by a combination of high temperatures, rainfall, and humidity. Natural climate variability also cannot be ignored — it leads to a wide range of outcomes under the same SAI scenario that could affect the livelihoods of farmers growing cacao, coffee, and grapes.
”SAI climate intervention may offer temporary relief from rising temperatures in some regions, but it is not a guaranteed fix for the challenges facing luxury crop farming. Adaptation strategies tailored to local conditions, investment in resilient agricultural practices, and global cooperation are essential to saving these crops and the communities that depend on them,” adds Morrison.
