Wheat yields in north-west Europe have been largely flat for decades, despite the crop still having scope to produce more. New research from Wageningen University & Research (WUR) finds that this “yield plateau” is not driven by climate change or by wheat varieties reaching their genetic ceiling. Instead, the main constraint is on-farm management.
The study combines experimental results and farm-level data from the Netherlands with crop modelling to pinpoint why yield growth has levelled off since the 1990s. It assesses three drivers of yield change: genetic improvement, historical climate change, and farm management practices.
A Region Where Yields Stopped Rising
North-west Europe is a major wheat-producing area, with more than 10 million hectares grown annually. Up to the mid-1990s, yields rose steadily—by roughly 120 kilograms per hectare per year. Since then, growth has slowed and yields in many countries have stabilised at around 7 to 9 tonnes per hectare, with the reasons long remaining uncertain.
Genetic Progress Has Continued
Variety trial data show plant breeding has kept delivering yield gains beyond the mid-1990s. From 1994 to 2016, genetic progress averaged 74 to 84 kilograms per hectare per year. Modern varieties typically have a longer grain-filling period and slightly improved light-use efficiency, suggesting the genetic yield ceiling had not been reached during the period studied, according to a press release.
Historical Climate Change Did Not Limit Yields
The analysis also indicates that historical climate change has not constrained wheat yields in the region so far. Using a crop model that held genetics and management constant, researchers simulated the effect of observed climate changes. The results suggest climate change contributed positively to yield growth—adding around 26 to 60 kilograms per hectare per year—mainly due to higher CO₂ concentrations and more light during grain filling linked to earlier flowering. The study does not draw conclusions about the effects of future climate extremes.
Farm Management is the Missing Link
With both genetics and climate still providing headroom for yield growth, the study points to agronomic management as the key factor behind the plateau. This includes operational and tactical choices such as crop rotation design, cultivation practices, and soil management. Management effects were estimated indirectly, as the gap between actual farm yields and the yield gains explained by genetics and climate. Based on this approach, an estimated 67 to 114 kilograms per hectare of potential yield increase remains unused each year.
In north-west Europe, water and nitrogen management do not appear to be the primary limiting factors. Instead, the findings highlight intensive rotations with a high share of economically attractive root and tuber crops. These systems can raise disease pressure and increase risks of soil compaction, making timely and optimal wheat management more difficult and slowing yield progress in practice.
Where Further Gains May Come From
The results suggest that closing the yield gap is less about additional water or nutrients and more about other management levers—especially crop rotation planning, soil management, and related cultivation choices. Researchers also emphasise that any push for higher yields must be balanced against economic feasibility and production within environmental limits.
Overall, the study concludes that wheat yield potential in north-west Europe continues to increase, but realising more of that potential will depend largely on management decisions made on farms.
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