b"CHANGING PRODUCTIVITY IN THE U.S. CORN BELT FOR SOYBEAN AND MAIZE OVER THE NEXT 80 YEARSGRAPH: MEIJIAN YANG. How Much Heat is too Much Heat? enough to compensate for loss in yieldular prediction, the results consider the Most of the climate projections used incurrently produced in more southernimpacts of a changing climate in isolation. this study originated from models thatregions, however.I want to make sure everyone under-produced approximately 2C increase ofTo me, personally, I was surprised bystands that this is purely a projection of global mean temperature by about 2050such a clear northward shift of the pro- the climatic impact. This is not a predic-over a 2000 mean. Of course, a two- ductive zone, and I was also surprised totion of the future. This is not to say that degree global increase does not simplysee for soybean, yield actually increasesyield will actually go down, because mean the mercury rising by a consistentand then decreases, Wang says. Thetechnology has always advanced to bring two degrees in every growing region andproblem related to that in terms of adap- more yield. The way to look at it is not in on every growing day.tation is that you're looking at an increaseterms of yield decreases. Rather, its how Here in the mid-latitude, Northernof yield for a few decades and then amuch can we expect the yield increases Hemisphere U.S., we always experiencedecrease. How do you adapt to that? Arewe get from technology and breeding more than the global mean for tempera- we going to shift the infrastructure north- to be offset by climate change? Wang ture increase, Wang says. Thats the firstward, but do that only for a few decades?says. And how much do farmers need to point. The second is that, when we talkIs that worth it? I think there is a lot ofchange how or where they grow?about heat stress, the global mean tem- uncertainty related to this. Yes, the yield isToo, points out Yang, theres much perature is an average. It does not conveygoing to go up in those regions but howopportunity to change the predicted the severity of the heat that an individualdo you take advantage of that? outcome over the coming years.region is subjected to in an individualWe are considering the most pes-year. Many Factors Impact the Future simistic outcome for climate change. The study also showed that the mostWang and Yang both point out that,If we make advancement in mitigating productive growing regions will movethough their study provides much moreclimate change, the situation will not be as northward by 2050. That shift will not beaccurate and much more localized, gran- extreme, Yang says.SWDECEMBER 2023SEEDWORLD.COM /37"