Canadian farmers are making bold planting decisions for 2025 — and the numbers tell a story of shifting priorities, global signals, and climate pressure.
According to recent Statistics Canada data, wheat is surging ahead while canola, soybeans, barley, and lentils are all set to take a backseat. Farmers are navigating a cocktail of rising input costs, erratic moisture conditions, and volatile market prices — and betting big on crops that offer the best return with the fewest headaches.
Spring wheat acreage is expected to jump 2.5% nationally, hitting 19.4 million acres, while total wheat area climbs to 27.5 million acres — a 2.6% increase over 2024. That growth is fuelled by strong global demand for high-quality wheat, especially as food security remains top of mind around the world.
But while wheat’s having a moment, canola is quietly slipping. National acreage is forecast to fall 1.7% to 21.6 million acres — a signal that canola’s once-dominant profitability edge is shrinking. In Manitoba, farmers are scaling back even more aggressively, cutting 6.4% of their canola acres, according to Statscan.
Soybeans are also in retreat nationally, dipping 1.3%. But Manitoba is bucking the trend — up a whopping 14.1% — likely due to better local conditions and market opportunities. Ontario, the top soybean-producing province, is doing the opposite, slashing acreage nearly 8%.
Meanwhile, corn is quietly staging a comeback. Grain corn area is expected to rise 3.2% across Canada, with Ontario leading the charge (+5.0%) and Manitoba not far behind (+4.6%). As feed demand stays steady and processing infrastructure grows, corn is increasingly attractive.
The barley and oat picture is more mixed: barley acreage is dropping 2% nationally, while oats are rebounding 2.7%, possibly due to low stock levels and renewed interest from niche processors like gluten-free brands.
And in pulses, dry peas are up nearly 10% — a huge swing, likely reflecting strong market prices and lower input costs. Lentils, on the other hand, are flatlining or declining in most regions, suggesting fatigue in the market or rotation shifts.
Bottom line? According to Statscan, Canada’s 2025 planting intentions show a sector in motion, recalibrating in real time to weather, prices, and profitability. The only certainty is change — and for now, wheat is winning.
