The latest outlook from the University of Missouri Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute makes one thing clear: volatility is no longer a backdrop to agriculture. It is the environment.
As I worked through the 2026 International Agricultural Market Outlook, I kept coming back to one idea: nearly every trend in this report eventually lands on seed.
Margins tighten, policies shift, demand evolves and seed becomes one of the few decisions growers can still control.
The projections are based on January 2026 assumptions, using macroeconomic forecasts from S&P Global. They do not reflect the more recent disruptions tied to conflict in the Middle East, which means the real story is likely even more volatile than what’s outlined here.
That matters, because even this “baseline” scenario points to a more complex and less forgiving environment. More detailed tables and data are available in the full report.
Growth Continues, But It’s Changing Shape
South America keeps expanding. Brazil and Argentina will continue adding crop area, though at a slower pace. That alone isn’t new. What is changing is where the rest of the world finds its production gains. More of it will have to come from yield.
That’s where I see the pressure building for seed companies. Yield is no longer just about pushing the top end. It’s about consistency, resilience and performance under conditions that are getting less predictable.
Margins Are Tight. That Doesn’t Look Like It’s Changing
Cereal markets are a clear example. Prices have come down from the highs of 2022 and 2023, but input costs haven’t followed. That squeeze is still very real.
When I look at that dynamic, it reinforces something we’ve been hearing across the industry for a while now: growers are scrutinizing every input decision. Seed doesn’t escape that. It has to prove its value more clearly than ever.
At the same time, global feed demand continues to grow, driven largely by poultry production. China’s role is slightly shifting. Feed demand growth is slowing and imports are flat, but it remains a major force in how grain markets move.
Policy Is Quietly Steering the Oilseed Story
Oilseed markets are holding steady, but not because supply and demand are perfectly balanced.
Policy is doing a lot of the work. Mandates for biomass-based diesel are supporting vegetable oil demand, even as strong production keeps prices relatively flat. China continues to anchor soybean demand with steady growth.
From a seed perspective, this is where things get interesting. When policy becomes a primary driver, it introduces another layer of unpredictability and another reason traits tied to efficiency and adaptability matter.
Livestock Strength Comes With Fragility
Beef prices are strong across several markets. U.S. production has stalled, demand remains firm and the EU dairy herd is shrinking.
But underneath that strength, there’s risk. Diseases like Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and New World Screwworm have the potential to shift production quickly. And when livestock moves, feed demand moves with it. That connection is easy to overlook, but it’s one more way volatility works its way back upstream.
Dairy Reset Now, Recovery Ahead
Dairy markets felt the pressure in 2025. Production outpaced demand, and prices dropped, especially in the U.S. and Europe.
FAPRI expects recovery, driven by rising incomes, expanding middle classes and better infrastructure for moving perishable products. To me, that signals something important: demand is still there. It’s just uneven. And when demand is uneven, consistency in supply becomes more valuable.
Again, that loops back to seed.
Biofuels Continue to Pull on the System
If there’s one area where policy and markets clearly intersect, it’s biofuels.
Ethanol production is projected to steadily grow, led by Brazil’s RenovaBio program, which is pushing nearly 3% annual growth and increasing corn use. The U.S. continues to grow as well, just more slowly. Biomass-based diesel is expanding too, with the U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil leading production.
For seed companies, this isn’t a side story. It’s a demand driver. It shapes acres, influences breeding priorities and reinforces the importance of crops tied to fuel markets.
Where This Lands for Seed
What stood out to me most in this report isn’t any single data point. It’s how tightly everything is connected. Input costs. Policy decisions, animal health, consumer demand, energy markets — they’re all moving at once.
When that happens, the margin for error shrinks. Seed becomes more than a starting point. It becomes a strategy.
Because when growers are navigating uncertainty, they look for reliability. They look for performance they can count on. And increasingly, that expectation starts with what they put in the ground.
That’s the key theme I see in this outlook. Not just change, but pressure and a growing expectation that seed will help carry more of it.
