Our sister publication the Alberta Seed Guide sat down with Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Financial in Calgary, last week to talk tariffs, trade, and what the ag sector needs to know right now.
The global economy is shifting fast — and Alberta’s place within it is evolving just as quickly. In the wake of a major U.S. tariff announcement, Mark Parsons, vice-president and chief economist at ATB Financial based in Calgary, shared his take on what it all means for Alberta’s agricultural and export-driven economy.
“Yesterday changed a lot,” Parsons says, referencing the U.S. decision to enact a suite of global tariffs on April 2. “We’re moving from the inflation battle into a trade war, and that brings a whole new level of uncertainty.”
While Canada was exempt from many of the new tariffs announced on April 2, Parsons notes that Alberta entered this phase with strong economic momentum. Inflation was cooling, and the Bank of Canada had been signaling progress. But now, with U.S. tariffs taking centre stage, the landscape looks far less predictable.
There are two major ways tariffs are impacting the economy, he explains. First is the direct impact — reduced demand due to higher costs on goods. Second, and more subtle but just as significant, is the uncertainty: “Businesses are holding back on hiring and investing until they know what these tariffs will actually look like.”
The latest U.S. announcement offered a partial reprieve for Canada and Mexico. As long as exporters comply with the USMCA rules of origin, Canadian goods — aside from autos and steel/aluminum — can avoid the steep tariffs now targeting other countries.
“Alberta’s relative position actually improved overnight,” Parsons says. “We could become a more attractive source for products, especially compared to countries now facing harsher trade barriers.”
Still, there’s a catch.
“What worries me more now are the indirect effects. The markets are reacting — stocks are down, oil prices are falling. We’re seeing signs of a global slowdown, and that could hit Alberta, especially in sectors like energy and agriculture.”
Parsons warns against overreacting to every headline or tweet. “You have to sort through the noise. Focus on what’s real — executive orders, actual trade policies — not just social media bluster.”
For Alberta’s farmers and agribusinesses, the key takeaway is this: scenario planning matters more than ever. Whether it’s Chinese tariffs impacting grain exports or counter-tariffs increasing input costs, every operation will feel the effects differently.
“This isn’t a moment for single-point forecasts. It’s about stress-testing your business against multiple outcomes,” says Parsons.
To stay informed, he recommends ATB’s suite of economic tools, including the 24/7 daily insights and quarterly economic outlooks.
“We’ve got boots on the ground across the province, helping Alberta businesses navigate through the noise.”
