In an industry built on planning, the latest data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) presents a moving target. The April 2025 Outlook for Principal Field Crops lays out a year of recalibrated expectations—where some crops regain ground and others pull back under pressure from trade disputes, drought, and softening global prices.
As of March 31, 32% of Prairie agricultural land was experiencing abnormal dryness or drought—up from 23% in February, according to the Canadian Drought Monitor. The central region (Ontario and Quebec) wasn’t spared either: 34% of agricultural land there was also affected.
Despite the conditions, AAFC expects a modest increase in seeded area for 2025–26. But that optimism is tempered: “Assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, overall production is anticipated to decrease slightly.”
Here’s what seed professionals need to watch.
Durum: From Highs to Stabilization
Durum had a banner year. Production rose 44% to 5.9 million tonnes, thanks to expanded acreage and trend yields. Exports have surged—up 64% over last year, with Italy, Morocco, Algeria, the U.S., and Spain all posting big gains.
Still, the report cautions that “exports are forecast to drop to 4.6 Mt,” a year-over-year decline of 8%, “but still 4% above average levels.” Domestic use remains steady, and closing stocks are projected at 0.55 Mt.
On pricing: the average Saskatchewan spot price for CWAD 1, 13% protein is steady at $315/tonne, with a forecast drop to $310/tonne in 2025–26, reflecting expected lower import demand.
Wheat (Excluding Durum): Steady Acres, Tighter Margins
For wheat, production increased slightly to 29.1 Mt in 2024–25, but carry-in stocks were weak, pulling total supply down to 33.4 Mt. Exports are forecast at 21.3 Mt, while closing stocks are expected to fall 9% year-over-year to 3.8 Mt.
Looking ahead, wheat acreage is projected to rise 3%, with Canadian Western Red Spring Wheat covering 6.9 million hectares, or 81% of total wheat area. However, “total supply [is expected] to decline 1%, constrained by tight carry-in stocks.”
Despite these constraints, wheat prices are forecast to increase from $280/tonne to $300/tonne in 2025–26, driven by “growing demand and tight global stocks.”
Barley: Squeezed by Competition and Supply
Barley continues to feel the squeeze. Supply for 2024–25 is 9.4 Mt, already down 3% from the previous year, and projections for next year look worse: production is forecast to fall to 8.1 Mt, and supply to 9.0 Mt—the lowest on record.
Exports are forecast at 2.9 Mt, down from the five-year average, while carry-out stocks will sink 32% year-over-year to 0.8 Mt. The price, already depressed, is projected to drop further: “The 2025–26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at $285/tonne, down $10/tonne from 2024–25.”
Corn: High Acreage, Lower Margins
Canadian corn supply is stable at 19.4 Mt, and domestic use is softening. But exports are surging, with 2.4 Mt forecast for 2024–25, mostly heading to Ireland, the UK, and Spain. That momentum won’t last: “Exports are forecast to decline due to expected large corn production worldwide.”
In 2025–26, corn acreage is projected near historic highs at 1.5 million hectares, but prices will feel the weight of U.S. competition. The Chatham average corn price is forecast to drop to $215/tonne, down from $225.
Canola: Demand Strong, But Margins Tight
Despite hot, dry conditions, domestic crush surged to a record 11.5 Mt in 2024–25. “Canada crushed 6.8 Mt of seed, producing 2.9 Mt of canola oil and 4.0 Mt of canola meal.” Yet production slipped to 17.8 Mt, and exports are expected to decline.
By 2025–26, production is projected at 18.0 Mt, with supply down 6%. Seeded area is shrinking, and AAFC warns that “seeded area may be subject to downward revisions in the coming months” due to “shrinking margins on elevated input costs and volatile futures.”
Still, prices are forecast to rise slightly to $670/tonne, assuming trade disruptions don’t escalate.
Pulses: Caution Ahead
- Dry Peas: Exports are forecast at 2.1 Mt for 2024–25, with carry-out stocks set to increase due to tariffs and weakened demand. For 2025–26, exports could fall to 1.3 Mt, and prices are expected to decline.
- Lentils: Exports remain at 2.1 Mt, but prices are under pressure. The forecast average is $730/tonne in 2025–26, down from $815 this year.
- Dry Beans: Exports are falling, and 2025–26 seeded area is expected to drop 11%. Prices may rise slightly next year to $1,140/tonne, but volumes will be tight.
- Chickpeas: Seeded area and production are expected to decrease. “The average price is forecast to be lower, with expectations for higher world supply.”
Oats, Rye, and Niche Crops: Swing Years Ahead
- Oats: Supplies are low and prices are sliding. “The 2025–26 CBOT oat price is projected at $325/tonne, the lowest in five years.”
- Rye: The rebound is real—2025–26 will see the largest seeded rye area since 1990. But that supply surge will weigh on prices: “The Prairie average rye price is projected at $180/tonne, an eight-year low.”
- Mustard Seed: Seeded area is expected to fall 52% in 2025–26 as prices and demand soften.
A Global Snapshot with Local Consequences
AAFC’s report doesn’t just track Canadian trends—it ties them to global currents:
- Global wheat stocks will be the lowest in six years.
- Global corn production is forecast at a record 1,269 Mt.
- Canola exports from Australia are set to dip, potentially opening space for Canadian product.
- Oat and barley stocks are tightening in Black Sea and EU regions, signaling potential volatility ahead.
