Coffee cultivation in Uruguay might sound unlikely today — but climate change could soon make it a reality. A recent study published in PLOS ONE suggests that by 2050, Uruguay and other southern regions in South America may become increasingly suitable for growing coffee, along with crops like cashew and avocado.
A Global Shift in Coffee Geography
The study examines how changing climate conditions are reshaping the global suitability of coffee, avocado, and cashew production. Arabica coffee, which makes up the majority of global production, is particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns. Already, in 2023, global coffee production fell 3% short of consumption. As demand rises — especially across Asia — the supply gap is expected to widen, according to a press release.
Currently, some of the world’s top producers — Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia — are at risk. By 2050, over 50% of land now used to grow arabica coffee is projected to become unsuitable due to excessive heat, drought, or unpredictable climate conditions.
But as traditional regions lose viability, others gain it.
Uruguay’s Potential as a Future Coffee Producer
The study’s climate models show that parts of Uruguay, along with southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina, may benefit from warming trends — particularly rising minimum temperatures during the coldest months. These shifts could create a more stable climate for crops like coffee that currently struggle under unpredictable or extreme conditions.
Coffee plants take about three to four years to yield their first harvest, making them a long-term investment. But with global demand on the rise, producers may see emerging regions like Uruguay as an opportunity worth exploring.
Cashews and Avocados Also in the Mix
It’s not just coffee. The models also show Uruguay gaining ground in cashew and avocado suitability by mid-century. For cashews, the combination of warmer temperatures and more favorable precipitation patterns improves prospects across South America, including Uruguay. Similarly, avocado production could expand into areas on the southern edge of current growing zones — again, Uruguay among them.
Climate: The Biggest Limiting Factor
While soil quality, slope, and pH levels are important, the study emphasizes that climate is the most significant constraint for these crops. High annual temperatures, longer dry seasons, and increasingly unpredictable rainfall are key factors determining whether a region is suitable.
For Uruguay, the changing climate may open doors to new forms of agricultural diversification — though challenges around land suitability, infrastructure, and market development would still need to be addressed.
From Commodity to Opportunity
As global agriculture adapts to climate change, Uruguay could find itself playing a surprising new role in the coffee supply chain. What is currently an unlikely scenario may, by 2050, be a forward-looking strategy — one that transforms the country from a coffee consumer to a coffee cultivator.
