What do AAC Brandon, AAC Wheatland, and AAC Viewfield all have in common? They are the backbone of Canadian wheat production, bred by public institutions and planted across millions of acres in Western Canada.
They are also important examples of something we don’t talk nearly enough about: Canada’s public plant breeding system. It’s the foundational force, the silent insurance policy, and now, seemingly, the forgotten workhorse of Canadian agriculture.
For decades, Canada’s public plant breeding programs have quietly delivered billions to our economy, improved crop genetics, and strengthened our national food security.
Over the past 20 years, wheat yields in Western Canada have increased by more than 25% — not through more fertilizer or farmland, but through steady, science-driven improvements to genetics. Research shows that every dollar invested in public wheat breeding returns between $20 and $33 in value. It’s hard to imagine a better return on public investment in Canadian agriculture.
And yet, what are we doing with this proven national asset? We are letting it die on the vine.
Past government decisions have closed research stations, test farms, and plot sites, erasing invaluable breeding capacity that we may never get back. The policy direction over the past decade has been clear, albeit rarely vocalized: step away from variety finishing, lean into upstream science, and hope that others will fill the gap.
But those “others,” namely private sector seed companies, can’t and won’t fill that gap alone. Not because they lack expertise or ambition—they have plenty of both—but because they don’t share the same mandate, and the economics don’t work the same.
Many will point to canola as a model to follow, but wheat doesn’t have the same luxuries. It doesn’t lend itself to hybrid systems that generate predictable seed revenue. Cereal crops are open-pollinated, regionally adapted, and widely farm-saved.
In Western Canada, less than 25% of wheat acres are planted with certified seed. That means only a fraction of farmers are paying royalties into the next generation of varieties. It’s not a model that can sustain private investment at scale.
This isn’t a crisis that will show up tomorrow, and that’s exactly the problem. The effects of under-investing or shifting focus in public breeding won’t be fully felt for another 10 years, but when they arrive, they’ll take generations to reverse.
Plant breeding operates on decade-long timelines. The varieties farmers will need in 2035 are being worked on now — or should be. Every gap in capacity, every retirement that isn’t backfilled, every shelved research program is a decision with consequences that will be felt for a generation.
This isn’t about next quarter’s results; it’s about whether Canada wants to lead or follow in the future of food production. If we continue to walk away from variety development, we risk becoming dependent on varieties developed elsewhere, for different markets, different climates, and different priorities.
Some will argue that shifting public dollars upstream is the way forward, that pre-breeding and partnerships are enough. But in practice, we are hollowing out our breeding capacity at the exact moment we need it most.
Climate and political volatility are accelerating. Global competition is fierce. And let’s not forget, a huge part of our seed system—the infrastructure, jobs, and rural economies that deliver varieties to farmers—still depends on the steady output of public breeding programs.
Let me be clear: this isn’t about whether public is better than private. Private plant breeding is vital to the success of the seed sector and Canadian agriculture as a whole. But public breeding is different. It’s the foundation. Without it, the rest doesn’t function as efficiently or equitably.
Canada needs a real strategy for plant breeding, just as we do for other core infrastructure and strategic resources. We need stable funding, a clear path for succession, and a renewed vision for what public breeding can be — not just at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), but in fields delivering results that work for farmers.
What’s most concerning is how quickly this decline could accelerate.
With AAFC already signaling its desired shift away from variety development, and the federal government actively looking for places to cut spending, public breeding could quietly shrink even further. And all of this without meaningful consultation with the very people who’ve invested in it the most.
Farmers have contributed millions to AAFC-led breeding programs over the years. Any move to step back further from this work needs to reflect that shared investment and be shaped in partnership with the sector, not imposed from above without consultation.
It’s time we recognize public plant breeding for what it truly is: a strategic asset that underpins our productivity, trade competitiveness, and food security. If we let it erode further, we’ll only have ourselves to blame.
If you’re in government, public breeding is your chance to place a smart, bold bet on the future of Canadian agriculture. If you’re in industry, it’s time to speak up and stand alongside like-minded partners. And if you’re a farmer, this is your system. Let’s create something that sets future generations up for success.
The next great variety won’t appear by accident. It will take intention, investment, and a shared commitment to keeping public breeding strong.
What we need now is clear leadership — a national breeding strategy that reflects the sector’s needs, includes farmers at the table, and lays out a sustainable funding model for the future. This won’t be an easy discussion, but the ones worth having rarely are.
