Brazil is on track to achieve one of its most substantial corn harvests in history for the 2024/25 season, driven by favorable weather conditions and increased planting areas.
The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) projects total corn production at approximately 124.7 million metric tons, marking an 8.5% increase over the previous year. This includes a second-season “safrinha” crop estimate of 98 million tons, which accounts for nearly 80% of Brazil’s total corn output.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers a slightly higher forecast, estimating Brazil’s 2024/25 corn production at 126 million metric tons. This projection is based on an expanded planted area of 22.3 million hectares, up 4% from last year.
Early-season rains have significantly benefited crop development, particularly in key producing regions like Mato Grosso. Reports indicate that areas such as Sinop have received up to 2,500 millimeters (approximately 100 inches) of rainfall, contributing to robust yields.
Despite the strong harvest, Brazil’s corn stock levels remain tight. CONAB reports that corn stocks are at historic lows, around 2 million tons for the 2023/24 season, with expectations of a recovery to 5.5 million tons by January. In contrast, the USDA estimates February-end stocks at 7.5 million tons, predicting a decline to under 3 million tons for 2024/25.
These tight stock levels, coupled with strong domestic and international demand, are likely to keep corn prices elevated, influencing global markets and potentially affecting U.S. export competitiveness.
Looking ahead, the USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 corn production to reach 130 million metric tons, driven by increased planting areas and sustained demand. This upward trend underscores Brazil’s growing influence in the global corn market.
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